- What is an Each Way bet?
- Why is Each Way Matched Betting profitable?
- How to win money each way betting
- No Lay vs Lay Each Way Betting
- How much money can I make no lay each way matched betting?
- How much should I bet?
- Selection criteria
- Each way advantages vs normal matched betting
- Tracking your each way bets
- Each way betting top tips
Each way matched betting is a profitable strategy to create value out of horse racing bets. Betting each way on horses gives us an advantage because bookmakers don’t set the place odds according to probability.
They are simply always tied to the win odds (a 1/4 or 1/5 fraction of the
If you didn’t understand the short summary above, don’t worry. I wrote this guide to explain EW betting step-by-step.
If you’re tired of the “traditional” matched betting and you want to save time and make a higher profit, then this guide is for you. Each way betting can easily add £500-1000 to your monthly profits.
But let’s take things step-by-step. We haven’t even said what an each way bet is!
I recently stumbled upon an OddsMonkey forum post with over 12,000 comments on the subject! My first reaction was “Wow! there must be something interesting here…” And there was, indeed.
Each way matched betting is simply another way of betting on an outcome when having the advantage in terms of probability. This, in other words, is called value betting.
Think of value betting like this: Getting paid because betting odds are higher than what they should be in reality. For simplicity, let’s take the example of a tennis match. Federer plays Nadal and let’s say both have an equal chance of winning (50%).
What should the odds be? Federer (2.00) vs Nadal (2.00)
However, you will probably never see odds like these when betting with Bet365, Coral or other bookmakers. You will see something like this:
That’s because bookmakers offer lower odds than real odds and that’s how they profit. If people stake £10,000 on Federer (1.90) and £10,000 on Nadal (1.90), bookmaker profits will be £1,000 regardless of who wins. That’s because they’d pay £9,000 in winnings and pocket £10,000 in people’s losses.
In that sense, bookmakers are on the winning side of value betting, and we are on the losing side if we take the bet. Isn’t this sweet… Bookmakers take advantage of value betting and that’s how they profit.
Had the odds been 2.10 vs 2.10, and a 50% chance of each side winning, we would be betting on odds higher than the real odds and we’d be therefore creating value. That’s why we will never ever see these odds together.
So simply speaking, value betting is betting on odds higher than the real world odds. Now that we defined what value betting is, on to the more juicy stuff.
What is an Each Way bet?
An Each Way bet consists of two parts: The win part and the place part (the horse to come 2nd, 3rd or 4th). Both are of equal stake. Most races pay between 2-4 places, so if your horse comes in one of the paid place positions, it will pay out.
The win part is calculated as usual, on the horse odds. But the place is always paying a fraction of the win odds either 1/4th or 1/5th, depending on how many runners are in the race.
Example: A £10 each way bet means betting £5 on the horse to win and £5 on the horse to place. Say there are 8 horses in the race. We place a £10 each way bet on a horse, which means betting £5 for the horse to win and £5 for it to place. Say the win odds are 8.00. To calculate the place odds (not that you’ll ever do that), deduct 1 form the win odds (8-1=7), then divide by the place fraction (1/5) and then add 1. So 8.00 – 1 = 7.00 / 5 = 1.40 + 1 = 2.40.
Case 1) Our horse wins: We get paid both the win part and the place part. £5 * 8.00 (win) = £40 and £5 * 2.40 (place) = £12. Overall, net profit = £52 – £10 (our stake) = +£42
Case 2) Our horse places: We get paid only the place part. So £5 * 2.40 (place) = £12 – £10 (our stake) = +£2
So in any case – win or place – we make a profit. To find out more about how many horses are getting paid in each race and at what fractions you can view this OddsMonkey guide.
Now that we know what an each way bet is, let’s see how we can create value out of it.
Why is Each Way Matched Betting profitable?
Each way betting is bookmakers’ Achilles heel.
Place odds are always tied to the win odds. This is very important to understand so pay attention. By having the place odds being a constant fraction of the win odds as opposed to being a separate market allows for arbitrage opportunities. Why is that, you may ask.
Say a horse favourite is very likely to win (like
Smarkets and Betfair in fact, have separate markets for the Win and the Place part of the bets. This is how it should be. The betting exchanges markets represent the real probability of the place happening. That’s because they are a free market made by millions of people, like any other market. To some extent, the exchange odds are as close to reality as possible.
This discrepancy allows us to take advantage of the bookmakers place price without drawing any concern around arbing.
Another reason that each way betting is so profitable, is because it can be sometimes combined with BOG (Best Odds Guaranteed) and Extra Places races. BOG means that the bookies will pay us higher odds if the starting price is higher than the one we took. This can significantly boost our profits! Most bookies offer BOG now, including William Hill, Bet365, Skybet, Paddy Power, Coral and others. On top of that, some bookmakers offer an Odds Boost like William Hill and Ladbrokes.
Extra Places is also a great bonus. Some races simply pay more places than the usual 4 (hence the extra place promotion). So if your horse ends up finishing 5th in an Extra Place race, you will get paid.
How to win money each way betting
Not ALL each way bets are profitable. In fact, most of them aren’t. But we can find profitable opportunities using software -> the Each Way Matcher in OddsMonkey. Click here if you prefer video. EW Matcher also provides a handy tool where you get an alarm every time a profitable opportunity comes up so you don’t have to stare at the screen all day.
As you can see, the “Max Profit” column is what you can make on each bet if you lay the win and the place. OddsMonkey also says how much you should stake if you click on the “Open Calculator”.
Each Way Matcher has one column called “Rating” and one called “Arb Rating”. I don’t know why OddsMonkey call it “Rating”, but what they really mean is the “Combined Rating” of the win and place bet combined. “Arb Rating” is simply the win-only rating – if you bet for a normal horse to win (not an Each way). Arb rating >100% means that you’re really placing an arb. That’s one of the things you should avoid if you want to keep your accounts open. But I don’t think it matters that much when placing an Each Way bet, even though it’s an arb.
Anyway, the “Rating” is the only field we care about here. This tells us whether when placing this each way bet we have a positive expected value or not. A “Rating” of over 100% means the bet is profitable. However, even lower ratings are profitable too (>95%), because OddsMonkey deducts the exchange commission from it. So if the win and place exchanges are both Betfair, this means that a 95% “Rating” is 100% in reality if we pay 0% commission. This number is >=98% for Smarkets.
Oh yes… commissions matter! Which is why when I started doing each way matched betting I actually did it without laying the win or the place parts. Now you may ask… Isn’t this gambling? Yes, it is, sort of. It’s advantaged play since we have the odds on our side (remember value?). It’s as if you go to the casino but you are on the casino side 😉 But which one is better? No Lay or Lay Each Way Matched Betting?
No Lay vs Lay Each Way Betting
There are 2 ways you can do this. You can either place the Each Way bet and lay it on the exchange or you can let it run “no lay” style. There are advantages and disadvantages to each method but if you’re going to place a lot of each way bets, I believe the no lay benefits outweigh the risks.
First of all, I’d like to say no lay betting has the obvious risk of losing all your money. Since we’re not laying anything, theoretically speaking, we could lose straight 100 times and go bankrupt. Which is why managing your bankroll is VERY important in the beginning. More on it later.
What are the no lay each way betting risks and rewards?
No Lay Each Way Matched Betting
As you can see, no lay has many advantages. But if consistency is what you’re looking for, then you should avoid no lay betting. There can be several weeks without profit and that’s because of variance. Luck is in our side and as you place more bets the long-term advantage will show up. We WILL be profitable, maybe from the first very moment too.
But in the short-term, think 100-200 first bets, anything can happen. Some of you may be now screaming No Lay is gambling! And technically speaking, it is! There are no guarantees that you’ll make
It’s not unusual to say “this no lay system doesn’t work” and give up when you’re in the red in the first couple of bets. But how often do you hear the casino saying “this roulette thing is crap” when you win big?
If consistency is what you’re after go for the lay option instead. You will be less profitable but you will be in profit straight away. I still prefer no lay thanks to how easy it makes my life. No lay means no hassle placing exchange bets, checking the odds, logging the info etc.
But by laying the bet, we pay exchange commission which is a huge amount if you add it up over hundreds of bets. Think of the hundreds of pounds lost to exchange commissions.
OddsMonkey‘s column Max Profit refers to the profit we’ll make if you lay both the win and the place part. In reality, no lay betting offers a much higher profit over the long term, which is why I’m going with it!
How much money can I make no lay each way matched betting?
I will speak for the no lay method as the lay one is straightforward. Laying all the bets will return exactly the amount shown on the EachWay Matcher tool. That’s usually 1-5% return on your bets, depending on what you bet on. So 5% on £500 each way wagering will make you £25. Bear in mind that’s not a single £500 bet, but many small ones.
But no lay each way betting can be much more profitable than its lay cousin. That’s because we don’t pay exchange commissions, we spend less time per bet plus we can place more bets with the same bankroll. Our hundreds of pounds locked in the exchange can now be used for betting instead.
Here’s my profit breakdown from doing it almost 4 months in a row.
|Profit (£2 EW) <- Me||Profit (£10 EW) <- 5x stakes|
I placed around 800 bets of £2 (£1 win + £1 place) and I’m up £300. This may sound quite low for the amount of effort I spent (13 hours betting), but I actually like that a lot! It means my ROI is ~20% and each way betting pays me £25/hour.
Now the beauty in this is that ROI is relative to my stakes. So I can make 5x the amount by increasing my stakes 5 times for the same time spent! This is what the second column of the table shows. Had I bet with £10 instead of £2 I would’ve made much more without spending more time.
However, I’m taking it slowly in the beginning as bankroll management and “how much should I stake” is the million dollar question. There are negative swings that can wipe out my bankroll which is why it’s very important to start with low stakes (see next section).
Another way I can increase my profits is by placing more bets. Increasing the number of bets will not only make my “turnover” higher but will also reduce the impact luck has on my profits. Therefore, it should keep me closer to the expected profit which now is 15-20% of what I bet.
How much should I bet?
When I say this is one of the most important questions I mean it. No lay each way matched betting requires discipline more than any other strategy.
Staking size can make all the difference between “This system doesn’t work” and “I can definitely see the value in doing this”. That’s because in the beginning, luck will dominate. So it will seem like each way betting is a totally random thing. In fact, in my first 60 bets I was down -£50 which is not unusual.
But as you place more bets, luck will play a much smaller role in the bigger picture. The expected value will start showing up the more bets you place.
To continue the casino metaphor, the casino may lose in a day because one gambler hit the number in roulette 10 times in a row. But it won’t be down for a long time. As more and more people stake money, luck (on the people’s side) will fade away and the casino’s edge will eventually show its true face.
Now, there are already proven strategies for how much you should bet (i.e. Kelly criterion). But instead of going into probabilities and math I’d like to keep things simple.
If you’re just starting out, start with a maximum £2 (£1 win + £1 place) or even £1 if your bankroll is less than £1000. My first bets were at £0.50p. When I say bankroll I mean the total amount you have available for betting. You want to have a high enough amount available and split between different bookmakers without having to deposit/withdraw all the time. Not only it’s a hassle but can also draw attention and stupid “document verification” checks.
We can easily dream big when winning and conquered by fear when losing which is why starting with low stakes is so important. Otherwise, we will quit because the negative swings will be too much to bear. Then as we build confidence in our strategy and see the results, we can slowly increase our stakes.
So do not start with £20 each way stakes because you want to get rich quick. This is not the strategy! You will more likely become broke in no time. But do start at £1 or £2 and only look at your profits when you’ve churned 200 bets.
We agreed each way betting is a profitable strategy but we haven’t talked at all about how we pick profitable bets. Obviously, we want to only take those bets with positive Expected Value (EV).
I rely on Each way matcher for that as it displays the “Max Profit”. If the number is positive, then the EV is positive. If you’re laying the bets on the exchange (not using the “no lay” method) then just use the “Max Profit” column as a guide and read no further.
But if you’re using the “no lay” method like I do, then there is more value to it. Here’s all my selection criteria:
- Each way “Rating”: 95-200
- SNR Rating: 0-200 (doesn’t matter)
- “Arb Rating”: 0-100
- Back Odds: 6.00+
This filtering is recommended by the legendary Pingus post on OddsMonkey and so far it has paid well! Sometimes, I will demand no lower than 98% “Rating” if the bookmaker is Smarkets (2% commission). But for Betfair (5% comm), I stick to a minimum of 95%.
You can also set your commission to 0% if you have an offer (like Smarkets do now) and then you should only look for 100% minimum “Rating” for that bookmaker. To set your own commissions go to Tools -> OddsMatcher -> Commissions.
Now some people say that “Arb Rating” doesn’t matter and you can go over 100. Maybe that’s true but I’d rather play it safe and look like a normal punter than draw more attention, especially on a healthy account.
Oh yeah… speaking of which… I always start each way matched betting on the gubbed accounts. Gubbed means promotion restricted. I am not afraid of losing the account since I get no promotions anyway. The only harm they can do me is to stake restrict me to 1p which means the account is pretty much dead.
But I bet on healthy accounts too and have not lost any yet. I also quite like betting on events when there’s a clear favourite like in the picture above. There’s even a higher chance my horse will place and at high-odds!
Mobile-friendly bookmakers for each way betting
There are so many bookies to choose from but you cannot have a big amount in all of them. So you’ll have to choose at least 10. You want to go with the ones that offer the most profitable EW odds but are also easy to navigate while at the coffee queue!
No surprise, these are the well-known high street names: Bet365, William Hill, Skybet, Racebets, Betfair Sportsbook, Ladbrokes,
You can also apply a filter on the EW Matcher to only get notifications for your own bookmakers which is great.
Each way advantages vs normal matched betting
I find that I bet no lay each way more and more these days. Once I realised how quick and easy it is, I got hooked. I’m still learning the ropes and I’m afraid to increase my stakes yet. But the results are definitely there and despite the variance (<- a sophisticated way to say luck in statistics) no lay EW betting is the way I took my matched betting to the next level.
I’m even thinking about creating a bot that bets for me while I’m at work. This will take some time to develop but that will be the definition of passive income!
But to sum up, here’s why no lay each way matched betting is my new favourite over the traditional matched betting.
- Works on gubbed accounts. Yes, those accounts that are dead and excluded from promotions. Gubbed accounts are perfect to start with because there is no fear of getting more banned, only stake restricted. But even with stake restrictions, I can bet up to £10 each way which is fine for me so far.
- Each way is so much quicker than finding an offer, checking the T&Cs, laying the bet on the exchange and marking it to revisit. With no lay, I can even bet on my phone while waiting in the queue for coffee 🙂 Then I write the horse name, the time and the EV on my notes app and only go back at some point to check what happened.
- No lay E
achway betting is more profitable than any other strategy I’ve tried. It comes at a cost of negative swings, but the end result is profit. If around 20% of my stakes are profit, then that means for every £1,000 I stake, I get £200. Not bad for little Foxy!
- Matched betting requires offers to work. Each way betting doesn’t. So in dry periods like January and the summer, no lay each way matched betting is gold.
- Each way betting can be combined with traditional matched betting strategies (such as Skybet’s Money back if your horse comes 2nd and Extra Places) for higher profits. So that’s a big bonus.
Tracking your each way bets
I am not fancy when it comes to tracking my bets. I use a custom spreadsheet to track the following columns:
- Race name (e.g. Navan)
- Rating (this is the combined “Rating” column from EW matcher)
- Profit (+/-)
I guess I could track much more such as the Betfair starting price (BSP) for the win and place. This would give me the BSP Expected Value (which is not known until just before the race starts). Number of runners, fractional payout (4 or 5) are also things you can track. I just don’t bother since the above does the job well.
You can even make it simpler by not tracking Result (win/lose), Rating or Race name. But Rating, in my opinion, is quite important for future analysis.
If you’re interested in tracking the BSP then Timeform has the data both for the win and the place SP. You’ll need to register with them first which is free.
I find the above system easy to fill and rich enough to draw statistics. But what if I bet on my mobile?
If I bet on my mobile, I will make a note of the horse name, race time, bookmaker and expected value at the time of placing. Then when I’m on my desktop I’ll visit the bookmaker’s website and backfill the rest.
That’s how I keep track of my bets. You can also use OddsMonkey‘s tracker which is nice. You just click “Log bet” and it will record a lot of the above for you. Then you go back to settle it. I imagine the reporting side of it will get better over time too.
Each way betting top tips
To sum up, let’s make it clear first. Each way no lay betting doesn’t come with any guarantees. It is what it is. Like Suzybeth from OddsMonkey says, it’s like getting something for a better price than it’s worth.
So you need to trust the EV and stay the course in both good and bad times. After a few hundred bets you will have a clearer picture of what’s happening. You need to ride the variance. Here’s Pingus’ profit graph.
As you can see, the profit moves around the BSP EV and the expected value is always positive. So as long as you keep placing bets, your profits will move along this line.
A good time to find opportunities is between 09:00-13:00. Then between 16:00-18:00 you can find some good bets for the evening races. As I said before, the beautiful thing about each way betting is that you can find bets every day all year round 🙂
Another great thing is that you can use EW for getting a high return from your free bets (SNRs). I sometimes do that instead of settling for the usual 80% free bet return.
I hope you found the Each Way matched betting guide useful. It’s about being consistent and staying disciplined. That’s how profits eventually come. All the best to your future matched betting journey 🙂 Share your big days in the comments below!!!
35 thoughts on “Each Way Matched Betting Guide: More profit, Less hassle”
Fascinating – how do you get the tool to alert you whilst you’re out and about?
It is a powerful strategy, indeed. I only use the alerts when I’m on my desktop leaving the tab open. When I’m out I’ll just check every now and then on my mobile!
Thanks for this, really helpful!
When multiple websites offer the same competitive odds for a horse for one race, do you bet on the same horse on different websites, or just choose one website to bet on the horse? Also, do you/can you bet on multiple horses on one race with one website?
Two very important questions KC I did not cover! When multiple websites offer the same horse and same odds it doesn’t really matter which one you go with. Pick the one you care the least about or the one that makes sense for your balances. You probably want to avoid betting with the one that is running on a low balance so you don’t have to deposit next time.
But don’t bet more than your desired stake just because more bookmakers offer that horse.
To answer your 2nd question: I sometimes bet on 2 horses on the same race but never with the same bookmaker. I think it makes sense to bet on as many horses as the number of places paid if that makes sense.
Hope that’s useful!
Apologies just noticed the previous question is the same
Oh amazing, thank you for your quick response and it all makes sense!
I was wondering about simillar strategy but in shop. Is this make sense to lay win part and no lay place in extra places only but with rating probably around 90% rating only? Advantage is best odds and extra place…>?
Hi Michael, great article. I was just wondering whether you bet the same EW bet on multiple bookies or just lots of different EW bets on multiple bookies. Or would this have a negative impact on the +EV?
Awesome Foxy! EW has been my little secret for over 6 months now. I’m currently at £20 EW and made over 5k this month. One thing that increases your profits is doing accumulative horse race bets. For example, you can combine two horses with the odds of 4 into a new bet, or 3 horses to a triple, 4 to a quad, etc. This increases your bets placed massively and thus your profit!
Which bookmaker can you bet £10 EW with whilst stake restricted? Most of the ones that I use limit me to about 20p 😛
£20 EW and £5k a month? Madness!!! Well done! I haven’t reached that level yet but will be increasing my stakes (and hopefully my profits) soon.
I have heard about multiples, thank you for bringing that up. But variance increases as well which is why I have avoided triples and quads so far. Skybet has restricted my bets to £5 EW (total of £10) and I guess a heavier restriction is on the way. But I still get offers which is strange. Another bookie restricted me to 50p a long time ago (before EW) so I guess not all restrictions are the same.
My question to you is this: How can you make a £5k monthly profit if most of the bookies you use restrict you to 20p?!
Yeah, it definitely increases variance, although at least 30% of my profits come from mults.
There are a lot of bookies that you can EW bet with, I have at least two dozen in my spreadsheet. I also gnome with 3 other identities (quadrupling my accounts). But eventually, they’ll all be banned. I hope I will have made a good dent in my FI fund by then!
Is betting with different identities a common secret amongst all matched bettors? 🙂 Someone should write a guide on this!
How many races do you bet on each day? I am thinking of getting involved but I get the impression that this is only profitable if you bet on as many races as possible. Something I won’t be able to do during office hours
I usually place about 20 bets a day. You’re right that to smooth out the ups and downs you need to place a lot of small bets.
But bear in mind that placing bets is actually pretty quick if you don’t lay. You just need to check your phone every now and then (as you go to get a coffee, toilet, etc). It doesn’t take me more than 15 mins a day to place 20 bets.
Does the number of horses running in an event affect whether you should bet on it given a positive EV? Should I aim for those races with just 8 horses running to increase chances of a place? Thanks Nick
Hey Nick, the number of horses is a bit controversial so I decide not to count it as a factor when deciding on what to bet. Races with 8 horses offering 3 places looks like a better deal than 10 horses with 3 places. However, on one hand the odds should be lower for 8 horses and on another hand, if one horse withdraws from the race of 8 places, then the race will only pay 2 places which is not great.
Therefore, if something, I try not to bet on races where 1 horse dropping reduces the number of paid places. That’s 8 and 16-horse races.
Interesting, I have just started EW No lay, not the most positive of starts, but I can see the potential, to ease me in to it I started with Each Way Sniper, and it’s automated so it will put the bets on all on it#s own, seems pretty good.
One thing I have noticed is cash outs, currently looking at Paddy Power, there is a lot to be said for them, they extend your bet virtually right to the finish line, and I have notice on some value bets that the Cash can be good, in terms of the amount of the bet, in my case 25p EW, so 50p in total, I have cashed 3 bets out in the last 2 day’s only in PP for £2+ whilst in play, so I an building some software to test it out, early results look promising, going to do some testing & cash out any bet that goes over 90p, so a 40p profit per bet if it is offered in cash out ? if not I’m still value betting ?
Your value strategy looks promising Darren. Especially if you can automate it with software. Each Way Sniping is something I want to look at. Selenium might come handy here. What are the bookmakers you’re sniping with?
Regarding EW no lay, how many bets have you placed with EW no lay? I think the start doesn’t matter so much as long as you don’t deplete your bankroll by placing big bets. The volatility comes and goes.
Been looking at this for a while, the first idea was to automate match betting, and this is still on the cards, just did not like the idea of getting accounts gubbed, and it’s not a long term strategy for making money as it rely’s on free bets mostly ! I stumbled across each way value and can see this being stable for a lot longer, smaller amounts, but lots more bets should start to see a profit, and using automation for getting the extra out of the bet seem like a good strategy ?
Currently got, PP, 365 and a couple of other nearly ready for testing, the other bookmakers generally should not be an issue, it they have a website it can be automated, PP is now fully automated for cash out and after some initial testing yesterday and a few tweeks I think it will work fine, so will be getting testing underway today, just not a lot of each way value horses using the sniper software for PP, I have changed to your recommend settings so I will see how it goes, if not I have to do some random horses after a look through whats running !
Will let you know how it goes.
Well thought I would drop you a quick update, things have moved on well, been concentrating on just 1 bookmaker, I have managed now to full automate cash outs, and placing bets, I also now have access to the live feeds for both odds and user account, so now it works the same as the bookies web page, still some decoding of the format of the messages needs doing, but it’s coming on well.
I have been thinking of a strategy, currently I am using the EW Value system via EW Sniper to place bets, this is just whilst in testing, once the decoding of the feeds is done, I will be able to monitor for prices changes and I am hoping to do very quick bets, so as I notice a drop in odds, place a bet, and wait and see if the odds reduce and cash out and take a small profit on each bet, similar to betfair trading, whilst I think this will work and it will be based on the amount of bets to make a good margin, depending on stakes, I started to think about if it is possible to create low cost bets for max return, the idea is never to let the bet run, but use the cash out, so started to experiment with each way doubles, remember I am not looking for these to win, and 90% of the time you can cash with a minimal loss it the bet does not go in to profit, as I see it if the first horse of a double, starts dropping in price this will also cause the bookmaker to factor in the second horse and may ??? lead to better cash out offers?
Well Done, Darren. Looks like you’re well on your way to successfully implementing your strategy. Also cashing out before the race starts (even at a small loss) is a great way to hedge your bets and extract profits regardless of what happens. What do you mean by EW value system via EW sniper? Is this the EW arbing on OddsMonkey?
One of the reasons I’m not fully automating my EW betting is the sustainability of the strategy. Mainly the fact that I have to automate it for each and every bookmaker. I’ve lost many bookmakers before (stake restricted, closed account etc). Do you think you’re onto something that can work only in Betfair?
EW Value system,, it basically uses Mike Crukshanks value betting
system, backing via EW value bets, but he has automated
the placing of bets, all be it in a crude way, but it works.
I am implementing my own placing of bets & cashing out, which his
value system does not take in to account, cash outs, and a
pretty big flaw is, he places a value bet, but then never checks the
odds again, with cash out you can close the bet and then
re bet at the higher price.
From my initial testing, from 30 bets today there were 12 that gave
more than 50% profit without the horse running, from 25p EW
singles, the 12 ranged in between, 76p & £1.75, 5 were over £1
cashout, so I think it is looking positive. I want to connect it
to the betting exchanges, so I can predict what a book maker is likely
to do, when the odds on the exchange move, bring more
data in the decision making process, and as more bookies are added in
a move in odds on 1 bookmaker could be capitalized on
another bookmaker, it’s all about speed.
Another thing I have noticed, and maybe it’s a one off, but the horses
with the best cash out value, all lost, but a number that really
did not move their odds prior to the race won or were place !
More testing tomorrow. as for automating the bookmakers, my idea will
be to let other people on the system, but all they will need is
an account on the bookmaker the software uses, and I will do
everything from then on, they won’t need to do anything.
Not to sure what you mean about can only work on Betfair ? Betfair has
an api so it pretty straight forward to do anything on there
it does cost £300 quid a year, but you could probs get that back from
Match betting, Matchbook api is free.
Thanks for the guide, it’s very helpful and I’m considering signing up to OddsMonkey now. There’s just one thing I can’t quite understand – most of the examples that I’ve seen (here and elsewhere) show the rating/EV for the horses are typically 100-110, so how can you get an ROI of 20%? Am I missing something or is it just a natural variation?
Very good question Patrick. I believe the increased ROI comes partly from the extra odds boosts that some bookmakers offer. For example, William Hill and Ladbrokes will usually offer daily odds boosts of 20% or so. Then some other bookmakers will offer free bonuses if 2nd to the SP fav.
Bet365 also does the amazing free bet in the next race if your horse wins which is extra profit. So yeah, by placing EV bets on healthy accounts you combine it with other offers inadvertently 🙂 Last but not least, I believe OddsMonkey calculate the ROI by ‘locking’ in the profits, and exchanges do take their cut. But by not laying on the exchange, we can also pocket the extra 2-5% commission.
would just placing an e/way bet on the first three favourites work or not
Yeah, I don’t see why not.
I’m probably being thick but the each way matcher when loaded with your figures gives bets at anything up to 80/1 at the moment. OK for matched betting if you’re rich but obviously highly unlikely to come in the top flight. What am I missing??
It may be just one dry day or so. I got many opportunities in June when the horse racing re-started after Covid. Right now I’m abroad.
Make sure you include as many bookmakers as possible. Ironically, the higher the odds the bigger the profit for me, even after accounting for the fact that I win less often. I’d say the sweet spot is between 30-50.
Thanks for the article – very useful! I’ve been doing MB for over a year now and it has become a great extra source of income. Just been getting into EW matched betting as most of my accounts have been gubbed. There are still quite a few that I can use though. My question is: for the no lay EW betting to be lucrative, one needs to place hundreds of bets over many months – obviously can’t really think of profit before this system is evaluated over time (minimum a year I would have thought). But it seems bookies are very keen to stake restrict my already gubbed accounts after just a few weeks of doing EW betting with them… (even with having been very careful not to withdraw money from them…), so at the moment I’m a bit hesitant to “waste” precious EW matched betting time with them (with a guaranteed profit) and start a long series of low stake no lay EW betting. The way it’s looking is that I would have a only few weeks with each of the bookies and they would eventually run out before I can see any real profits from no lay EW. (Have to admit, though, that placing EW bets with lays has been quite stressful, with odds fluctuating a lot and prices not being matched right away, so I can see the value in no lay being no hassle.). What do you think?
You’ve raised some good points, Mark. There is no ‘guarantee’ profit when you do no-lay EW betting. In the beginning, you may either see profits immediately, but it can also take some time (2-3 months I’d say) for the real profits to match the expected ones.
It really depends on the bookies. Some like bet365 let me bet for a long time before they stake restrict my account to zero. Personally, I don’t see a lot of value in lay-ew-betting just because it’s so much of a hassle. The best course of action for me was to start no-lay with small stakes and across many bookies at the same time. What do you think? Hope that helps.
Thanks for the reply! I’ve started doing no-lay with small stakes with Bet365… possibly with too high min. stakes (5£ each way) as I’m almost down to 50% of my 1000£ bank already. (I’ve read that a 1% unit stake is a viable approach.) I have been placing up to 3 bets on the same race (for different horses) quite a lot, though… maybe this is something best avoided? Also, I haven’t been very picky about what rating the bet has on the Oddsmonkey EW matcher – I’m going with anything over 99%. Should I maybe wait for higher ratings to come in? Or this doesn’t matter much? It’s definitely uncomfortable to see my total going down all most of the time… although I know that the edge is with me and all I need is a couple of wins at high odds and it will all balance out. (Just praying it won’t zero out too quickly…)
No-lay requires very small stakes, at least in the beginning. The luck swings can be huge, both sides, that’s why. If you read my section ‘How much should I bet?’ above, I only bet £1 for a £1000 bankroll in the beginning, so 0.1%.
OddsMonkey EW matcher over 99% should be good as long as your commissions are zero. Otherwise, what I do is change the rating to 102% if my Smarkets commission is 2% to reflect that. Just drop the stakes I’d say until you’re confident the system works. Oh and placing multiple horses in one race with the same provider increases the risk of being identified as an pro gambler 🙂
Great article, I’ve been wondering if it makes sense to skip the lay bets which are not where the profit lies. I am using profit accumulator software but they look very similar. I did have 2 questions if I may:
1. With 0% commission, a rating of 100% suggests the bet is breakeven does it not? Would you not require a rating of say 105% to make the bet worthwhile?
2. How do you factor in extra place offers? My gut says you could require a lower rating, say 90-95%, as the extra place will make up for it. But this depends on the number of runners I think, an extra place with 22 runners must be worth a lot less than an extra place with only 8.
Hi Chris, with 0% commission a 100% rating is break-even indeed. You would need higher than that to make a sustained profit.
You’re spot on with your extra place bets intuition. Personally, I didn’t relax my requirements when in extra place races. However, I always preferred to bet on those first when available.