Red Card Money Back Strategy [Advanced Matched Betting]

red card money backThere are many Red Card Money Back offers from 188Bet, but are they worth our money and time? This is an advanced matched betting offer that pays quite well.

Warning: If you’ve never practiced matched betting before, it’s a great way to earn a side income. Read this: Boost your Side Income with Matched Betting or the introductory post by OddsMonkey.

Usual Offer
“If a Red Card is shown during a match, we will refund all losing 1×2, First Goalscorer, Anytime Goalscorer, Correct Score, Half Time/Full Time and Both Teams to Score markets, up to a maximum of €/£/$25. The refunded stake will be credited as a free bet.”

Are they worth doing? It all depends on the Qualifying Loss (QL) amount.

If the offer reward is more than the QL * (odds of red card happening), then it makes sense to bet.

Example

Case 1

Let’s say we have a QL of £1 to win £20 (80% retention of the £25 money-back).
Red card on Betfair pays 7.00, which means if you bet £1 you get £7 back.

Is the offer worth doing?
YES it is. It’s as if you bet £1 to get £20 back, whereas your real odds should return £7.

Case 2

QL of £3 to win £20 (80% retention of the £25 money-back).
Red card on Betfair pays 7.00, which means if you bet £1 you get £7 back.

Is the offer worth doing?
NO it’s not. It’s as if you bet £3 to earn £20, or in other words, £1 to earn £6.67 (20/3). Your real odds should return at least £7 when betting £1.

Case 3

QL of £2.86 to win £20 (80% retention of the £25 money-back).
Red card on Betfair pays 7.00, which means if you bet £1 you get £7 back.

Is the offer worth doing?
Break-even! You bet £2.86  You can either bet or not but it should not make a difference.

And we’re not here to gamble, are we 🙂

Strategy

So to re-cap, multiply your QL with the Betfair odds of a red card happening and if it’s **less** than £20 (for the £25 money-back offer) go for it!

Let me know if you need any help with this or other offers via the comments or the contact form! Oh, and Happy Earnings!

In all calculations, the QL we’re talking about is underlaid. We underlay because we do not want to lose any money if our bet wins and a red card occurs. Remember, the refund is triggered only if the bet loses.

We also assume that the Betfair red card odds are the real world odds of the event happening which generally should be the case.


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